2014 forecast: Pinpoint accuracy should land Cole Stoudt among nation's best

Clemson quarterback Cole Stoudt prepares to put his helmet on after stretching before the Tigers' NCAA college football spring football game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. on Saturday, Apr. 12, 2014. (AP Photo/Anderson Independent-Mail, Mark Crammer)

Photo by Mark Crammer

Clemson quarterback Cole Stoudt prepares to put his helmet on after stretching before the Tigers' NCAA college football spring football game at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. on Saturday, Apr. 12, 2014. (AP Photo/Anderson Independent-Mail, Mark Crammer)

Chad Morris is entering uncharted quarterback waters at this level.

At Tulsa, he was one-and-done with fellow Texan G.J. Kinne at the helm and the nation’s fifth-best total offense (505.6 YPG).

And the last three seasons in Clemson, Tajh Boyd started all 40 games, where his final profile lists 18 different career school records owned.

Anointed after a little drama this spring, senior Cole Stoudt enters 2014 as Morris’ first, second QB.

Morris first-year QBs

Kinne - 2010: 59.8 cmp% - 3,650 passing yards (280.77 per game) – 7.9 YPA – 31 TD/10 INT – 561 rushing yards/7 TDs – 38 total TDs

Boyd - 2011: 59.7 cmp% - 3,828 passing yards (273.42 per game) – 7.7 YPA – 33 TD/12 INT – 218 rushing yards/5 TDs – 38 total TDs

First-year success is the norm through two tries, and in each case, that was the first year in the offense for the Kinne and Boyd. Stoudt is in his fourth year in Morris’ system.

A look at the numbers from then on...

So, what do we know about the Dublin Coffman (Ohio) product through three years now?

1) He’s pretty accurate.

2011: 100 snaps – 57.1 cmp% - 115 passing yards – 5.5 YPA – 0 TD/0 INT – (-6) rushing yards/5 TDs – 0 total TDs

2012: 71 snaps – 69.2 cmp% - 207 PY – 5.3 YPA – 3 TD/1 INT – 55 RY/0 TDs – 3 total TDs

2013: 116 snaps – 79.3 cmp% - 413 PY – 7.1 YPA – 5 TD/0 INT – 58 RY/2 TDs – 7 total TDs

Each season his completion percentage has gone up double-digits – obviously a trend that won’t continue due to the volume of passes he’ll throw this year, but still important to note.

On third down last season, Stoudt (6-4 210) completed 11 of 14 throws for 101 yards and a touchdown. Over three years, he has a 66.7 completion rate for 199 yards with the lone score on the crucial down.

Over the last two seasons, Stoudt has a 72 completion percentage in ACC matchups with three touchdowns.

Against S.C. State in 2013, he set the single-game completion percentage record (95, 19-of-20). He hit 10-of-11 throws later in the month against Wake Forest.

2) Effective on the run (in a small sample size)

Sure, he has 107 career rushing yards, but the yards per carry average isn't bad.

Five of his 14 rushes went for first downs in 2013, going 10 or more yards twice. Considering two of those “rushes” were sacks, a 42 percent first down rate is pretty solid (Boyd’s was 32).

In conference games (2012-13), he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry (18 for 94) with two touchdowns. On the road in that span, he’s gone 9.1 yards per carry (7 for 64).

3) First-half action limited, but again, effective

He has a total of 12 first-half passes and zero rush attempts.

Last season, Stoudt completed all six throws for 41 yards and a touchdown.

As a sophomore, he was 4-of-6 for 40 yards.

All totaled then in the first 30 minutes, that’s a 83.3 completion percentage and 81 passing yards at 6.8 yards per pass.

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In the Boyd era, Clemson had a top-11 passing offense each season – and more every year, 2011 (3952) to 2012 (4176) to 2013 (4328).

Boyd led the ACC in total offense each season as well, averaging 7.1 yards per play and a touchdown every 17.7 plays.

We have Clemson’s QBs as the second-most productive in the ACC, but what are our expectations for Stoudt this season?

Projecting Cole Stoudt

Marty Coleman – SeldomUsedReserve.com

Breakout Season (regular season): 70 cmp% – 3,300 PY (275 per game) – 35 TD/7 INT – 250 RY/6 TDs – 41 total TDs

Bust: 57 cmp% – 2,400 PY (200 per game) – 21 TD/12 INT – 100 RY/1 TD – 22 total TDs

2014 Outlook: 70.8 cmp% – 2,848 PY (237 per game) – 29 TDs/7 INT – 187 RY/5 TDs – 34 total TDs

Analysis: I expect a higher percentage of short to medium passes (and more running game) which means Tiger fans should expect less of an aerial circus than in recent years, but that also means less risks taken, a higher completion percentage along with less yards, touchdowns and interceptions.

There will be long touchdowns and big gains, just not as many as Stoudt, his receivers and Clemson fans settle into life post Boyd, Watkins and Bryant.

One year as a starter means Stoudt won’t sniff many Clemson records, but there are two I expect him to own at seasons end: Highest completion percentage in a season and career.

Brandon Rink – OrangeandWhite.com

Breakout Season (regular season): 71 cmp% – 3,500 PY (292 per game) – 35 TD/6 INT – 300 RY/7 TDs – 42 total TDs

Bust: 58 cmp% – 2,500 PY (208 per game) – 23 TD/13 INT – 125 RY/2 TD – 22 total TDs

2014 Outlook: 69 cmp% – 3,144 PY (262 per game) – 30 TDs/8 INT – 250 RY/5 TDs – 35 total TDs

Analysis: On the same track as Marty philosophically, but think there will be a little more punch to the passing offense.

Last season, 22 percent of Tajh Boyd’s completions were of 15 or more yards – 10 percent of 25 yards or more. In his more limited playing time, 17 percent of Stoudt’s completions were of 15-plus, while he had just three of 25 or more (5.2 percent). Obviously Stoudt doesn’t quite have the arm to air out as many vertical throws as Boyd without risking turnovers (not many QBs do), but he is accurate enough to throw consistently beyond the sticks for double-digit gains.

Clemson should have another top-25 passing offense regardless, going up or down with just how effective a ground game Morris and co. can establish.

Check out more Cole Stoudt analysis now up on SeldomUsedReserve.com

Our 2013 forecast for Tajh Boyd

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Comments » 13

fasttiger44#293363 writes:

If Stout is good enough to start and have the best high school quarterback in the nation sitting on the bench, then we should be just fine. I personally think we may see a 2 quarterback system from time to time and that may serve us well. Put Watson in on any 3rd and long situations and see if they can contain him. He can beat you through the air or running the ball. That's why he was considered the best dual threat QB in the country last year.

lhaselden writes:

I think you consider putting Watson in for a relief series if Stoudt is winded or banged up, I would not take the most experienced guy out on 3rd and long.

seldomusedreserve#284867 writes:

In my forecast I used the average number of passes per 12 games with Chad Morris as OC, figured what percentage of those Boyd threw, reduced it a bit (believe we'll see more running this year) and assigned that to Stoudt.

Similarly, when we get to Watson he'll get "an average" (more or less) what Stoudt got as Tajh's backup.

So, there's some logic and "history" to my forecasts, but in reality there are too many factors to account for them all. It's all fun and I enjoy looking at how everyone else thinks the season will play out.

fasttiger44#293363 writes:

in response to lhaselden:

I think you consider putting Watson in for a relief series if Stoudt is winded or banged up, I would not take the most experienced guy out on 3rd and long.

You make a good point as far as the experience goes. Your idea or comment certainly has a lot of merit to it. I didn't give experience any consideration when I wrote my comment. Good point you made and I agree with you after giving some more thought to it.

fasttiger44#293363 writes:

Although I have never seen Deshaun Watson play a down of football, all the talk about him leaves a reasonable person with the impression he is the closest thing to Mike Vick that has come along since Vick. I saw Vick play and destroy us in the Gator Bowl almost single handily. If Watson is another Mike Vick he will play next year and play a lot. Mike Vick was as good a dual threat QB I can remember.

BlueRidgeBengal writes:

in response to fasttiger44#293363:

Although I have never seen Deshaun Watson play a down of football, all the talk about him leaves a reasonable person with the impression he is the closest thing to Mike Vick that has come along since Vick. I saw Vick play and destroy us in the Gator Bowl almost single handily. If Watson is another Mike Vick he will play next year and play a lot. Mike Vick was as good a dual threat QB I can remember.

Well then you're in for a treat. He is one of the most decorated players in Georgia's football history. It's not debatable. Instead of Vick comparisons I'd say his style is closer to R Cunningham. As for Stoudt, he just needs to play "His" game. He is capable of being a lot more than a game manager than some people expect.Both are touted as solid citizens which is greater in the grand scheme.

TigerFan95 writes:

in response to fasttiger44#293363:

Although I have never seen Deshaun Watson play a down of football, all the talk about him leaves a reasonable person with the impression he is the closest thing to Mike Vick that has come along since Vick. I saw Vick play and destroy us in the Gator Bowl almost single handily. If Watson is another Mike Vick he will play next year and play a lot. Mike Vick was as good a dual threat QB I can remember.

Just from the film I've seen and observing him on the sidelines at the spring game I compare him more to Charlie Ward from FSU or Tommie Frazier from Nebraska. Both of those were very good QB's and we'll do quite well if he's like them. Vick was awesome, but I sure remember Ward making us look silly a time or two as well.

fasttiger44#293363 writes:

in response to BlueRidgeBengal:

Well then you're in for a treat. He is one of the most decorated players in Georgia's football history. It's not debatable. Instead of Vick comparisons I'd say his style is closer to R Cunningham. As for Stoudt, he just needs to play "His" game. He is capable of being a lot more than a game manager than some people expect.Both are touted as solid citizens which is greater in the grand scheme.

You have made me think a lot more about Watson. It seems as though you didn't just pull this out of the sky, either. Very good comment on my comment and after thinking about it, I must agree with you and if stats mean anything, which is really all you have to go by, then we struck goal with him. Being a good citizen or just a plain ordinary "good guy" goes a long way towards achieving goals set by the coaches and what you said is maybe one of the most enlightened comments I have ever read on this web site. Good information and thanks.

SoCalTiger writes:

Cole Stoudt has the makings of a good quarterback, but if he can't take a punch like Tahj did, we may see Watson sooner than later. Not a slight, but Stoudt looks thin. He needs some more meat on his bones.

TheTruth46 writes:

You Clemmers are most amusing and entertaining. Aren't you getting your cart before the horse? If I were a Clemmer, I'd be hoping Cole Stoudt is a far superior QB to Cliff Stoudt. And all this hype about Watson..the kid hasn't taken a snap as yet and has been injured as well. He might be terrific, but, this won't be high school football any longer..keeping in mind this is the EZZ.

MoncksTater writes:

@TheTruth46
I assume with your use of the deragotory "Clemmers" you are a Sackerlina fan. So , basically we stink , our new qb is a hopeless case and our wunderkind qb in waiting should drop football and take up ballet .
Did I get that right mister ? Golly Gee I hope your prognosticatory powers have failed you Nostradamus , we want to be a good football team too .

MoncksTater writes:

No mention of the greatness awaiting its next national championship trophy down in the Bluff Rd projects ? With all that defensive attrition and a so-so qb , the capons better pray for 8-9 wins and another Elastic Waistband Bowl to keep up appearances.

MoncksTater writes:

Its about that time when the fans of University of SEC start claiming titles they didn't win and hoisting trophies they didn't earn. If the Coots old fallback phrase of " Wait til next year " is truly dead then maybe they can replace it with " Did you see how pretty our cousin was ?" or possibly " Tell Aubama we aren't the fifth best team in the conference !" .
Spurrier has doped them and ESPin is their drug dealer.
Mouthbreathers.

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