Both down big men, every possession counts for Clemson, Virginia

Defensive-minded.

Motion offense.

Every possession counts.

Those characteristics are true of both the Tigers...and Cavaliers, but with different results this season, Virginia with a wealth of returning players and 17-3 start, and Clemson, who's had a mix of experience and a lot of youth to a 11-9 record thus far.

Taking a closer look…

The Matchup

The numbers speak for themselves with how Virginia operates.

They’ve allowed 50.6 points per game on the season, and just 51 per in ACC play. As Clemson coach Brad Brownell pointed out Monday, the Cavaliers’ “pack-line” defense isn’t big on forcing turnovers (12.9 per game, 216th nationally), but tough on shots, 26.2 percent 3-point defense (4th nationally) and 38.8 overall field goal defense percentage (17th nationally).

Because of that tough defensive approach, the game slows down, and the possessions are few.

Virginia is 334th nationally in possessions per 40 minutes (61.9), and meet their match in Clemson, who is 286th (64.9).

The Cavaliers are third in the nation in defensive points per possession (0.82), and the Tigers aren’t far behind there either (0.91, 43rd nationally).

Before, well, yesterday, the storyline headlining this matchup was Tony Bennett’s Virginia team still missing big man Assane Sene, who collided with another player in the Georgia Tech game a couple weeks ago, sustaining an ankle injury sidelining him for six weeks.

Sene’s impact isn’t missed as much on the scoreboard offensively (4.9 PPG), but his size (7-0) affects shots in the middle of the Cavaliers’ stout defense.

Monday’s Milton Jennings’ indefinite suspension takes away that size advantage in Sene's absence and weakens the Tigers at a position they aren't exactly deep at to start with, freshmen Bernard Sullivan and K.J. McDaniels his only replacements.

Oh, and Virginia has a strong ACC Player of the Year candidate in the paint, senior Mike Scott, who’s averaging 16.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and hitting 80.4 percent of free throws on the season.

Virginia down Assane Sene

None

Scott is a matchup nightmare, and Milton Jennings might’ve been the answer to guard him…now that option isn’t there.

Another Cavalier to watch is senior guard Sammy Zeglinski, who Virginia seems to go up and down with on the strength or lack thereof at times with perimeter shooting. Zeglinski hit 4-of-5 3-pointers in the 61-60 win at NC State, but was a combined 0-for-11 from the perimeter in losses to Duke and Virginia Tech.

Stats to Watch

• Field Goal Percentage – While the most points Virginia has allowed is 61 in ACC play, the Cavaliers have lost both games they’ve allowed more than 40 percent shooting from the field. Duke shot 52 percent and Virginia Tech 45 percent. The Tigers have shot above 40 percent in four games so far, going 3-1, 49 percent against FSU (79-59 win), 47 percent at Miami (76-73 loss), 47 percent against Georgia Tech (64-62 win) and 42 percent against Wake Forest (71-60 win). Though the ‘Hoos aren’t a high-scoring machine, they do hit 45.6 percent of their shots, which is good enough for fourth in the ACC on the season.

• Points per possession – As mentioned above, Clemson and Virginia both rank in the top-20 nationally in defensive points per possession. The Tigers improved to 10-2 when allowing less than a point per possession against Wake Forest, but that record could be tested in a defensive game with the Cavaliers.

• Free Throw Rate - If both defenses lock down and it’s close down the stretch, free throws could decide this one. Virginia has a high 40.5 percent free throw rate (free throw attempts to field goal attempts), and hit 72.6 percent as a team (four players who average over 20 minutes per game who shoot 79.4 percent or better from the line). Clemson has a 33.8 percent free throw rate (one player who shoots over 80 percent, Andre Young at 87.7, and the next nearest Bryan Narcisse at 72.2 percent).

Prediction

Virginia 60 Clemson 53