Scouting West Virginia: how the Tigers win

Scouting West Virginia: How the Tigers win…

Take away the deep pass: The homerun strike is a staple of West Virginia’s passing offense, and is the most important component differentiating Dana Holgorsen’s offense from other variations of the Air Raid offense developed by Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. Taking it away isn’t easy, in part because the Mountaineers do an excellent job of spreading the threat. Four receivers have catches of 50 yards or more this season, seven have catches of 30 or more yards, and nine have receptions of at least 20 yards. And in half of West Virginia’s games this season, at least nine different players have caught passes.

Pressuring Geno Smith crucial against WVU attack

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Stop the run: Another place where Holgorsen’s offense parts ways the traditional Air Raid approach is in using the rushing attack to complement, and in many cases, set up the passing game. A good portion of the Mountaineers’ deep passes come off play-action. A little goes a long way with an attack as dynamic as West Virginia’s, and the Mountaineers’ 3.8 per-carry season average is deceptive. If the Mountaineers can get four yards per rush, they’ll be hard to stop. On the other hand, if Clemson can stuff the run and make West Virginia even more pass-heavy than it wants to be, the Tigers will have taken an important step toward a successful defensive game.

Win the return game: The Mountaineers have their own version of Sammy Watkins in junior Tavon Austin, who in addition to being West Virginia’s top pass-catcher is the Big East special teams player of the year. He’s returned two kickoffs for touchdowns this season, and leads the conference in punt returns with a 14.1 average. The Tigers need to at least break even against the Mountaineers in the kick return department.

Win third down: West Virginia found itself in trouble in its last outing against South Florida because the Mountaineers struggled offensively on third down – just 2-of-14 conversions. Over the course of the season, there has been a strong correlation between West Virginia’s third-down conversion rate and its chances to win. Offensive third down may be even more important for the Tigers. When Clemson wins, it makes big plays on third down, and when the Tigers convert with regularity, they have a chance to change the game in their favor with pace of play.

Don’t turn it over: There’s no stronger indicator of Clemson’s chances of winning or losing than turnover margin. If the Tigers don’t give away the football, they give themselves a chance.

Dial up the defense: West Virginia will attack offensively. Clemson’s defense needs to do the same. The Tigers played with energy, focus and aggression against Virginia Tech, and it made a difference.