Breaking down Clemson-Virginia Tech

CLEMSON — – When Clemson left Blacksburg late on the night of Oct. 1, few would have blamed Tiger fans if they made hotel reservations on South Beach – maybe the Fountainbleau, or the Clevelander – for the new year.

Clemson was 5-0 and had just mauled reigning ACC kingpin Virginia Tech, and looked like the class of the ACC.

Funny how perceptions have shifted in two months. The Tigers sputtered into the ACC title game, and Virginia Tech, its opponent, is a far better team than the one Clemson smashed in Blacksburg.

THE GOOD

In the aftermath of Clemson’s Oct. 1 23-3 whipping in Lane Stadium – the first time since 1995 Virginia Tech was held without a touchdown at home – the Hokies have steadily improved. Tech is 6-0 since, putting an exclamation point on its season-ending run with last week’s 38-0 whipping of rival Virginia.

Sophomore quarterback Logan Thomas has thrown 14 touchdowns against three interceptions in that run, and scored nine of his 10 rushing touchdowns. He is a dual-threat passer, a concern given the Tigers’ inability to stop a mobile quarterback. Thomas averages 34.5 yards rushing per game, and he’s protected by a solid line led by ACC offensive lineman of the year Blake DeChristopher.

Tailback David Wilson, the ACC Player of the Year, is a fast, elusive runner who defensive coordinator Kevin Steele said was on the level of Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas and Mark Ingram this week. He averages 132.9 rushing yards per game, including five 100-yard efforts in his last six games.

Senior receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale are steady targets; they’ve combined for 104 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

And Tech’s defense is its usual salty self. The Hokies allow 302 yards per game (12th nationally) and 15.5 points per game (seventh nationally). Before South Carolina held CU to 153 total yards last week (the Tigers’ worst offensive day since 1998), the 323 yards the Tigers put up against Tech was a season-low.

Jayron Hosley is a returning All-America corner, and linebacker Jack Tyler has picked up the slack nicely from star middle linebacker Bruce Taylor’s season-ending injury.

THE BAD

This is not a classic “BeamerBall” team. The Hokies’ punting has been abysmal, 117th nationally. Coale, a receiver first and foremost, was told in Saturday’s pregame warmups that he was punting. Scott Demler and Michael Branthover have struggled, averaging 33.1 and 36.6 yards per punt, respectively; Coale has averaged 42 yards in six punts. This is good news for a Clemson special teams unit that blocked its first kick of the year last week.

THE SKINNY

After an ugly 1-3 finish to the regular season, this year is beginning to mirror 2006, which saw Clemson start 7-1 and rise as high as No.10 nationally before finishing the season 1-4 with a Music City Bowl loss to Kentucky.

Swinney’s second ACC title game appearance in three years is a crucial one; win, and most of the ugliness of the past month will be forgotten. Lose, and it’s hard to see him motivating his team for a second-tier bowl game, which could lead to a long, long winter and offseason.

Virginia Tech has every reason to be motivated after taking one of its soundest whippings in recent memory in the teams’ first meeting. The Hokies have improved both offensively and defensively, while Clemson has regressed in both areas.

If Clemson can stop its recent run of turnovers (10 in the last four games) and protect Tajh Boyd better – with a big play or two to Sammy Watkins – the Tigers will have a shot at the upset. But it’s hard to see the recent trend reversing itself in the past week. More likely, we’ll see the Hokies hoist their fifth ACC title in the last eight years tonight.